English 
Português do Brasil In a global scenario of accelerated transformations, where climate change, geopolitical tensions, and the digital revolution constantly redefine the dynamics of international trade, the ability to anticipate and manage risks has become an imperative for port competitiveness. Recognizing this urgency, the National Agency for Waterway Transportation (ANTAQ) launched the "Global Port Risks" project, a pioneering study that outlines a panorama of the challenges that will impact the Brazilian port sector by 2035, offering a strategic guide for long-term planning.
A regulatory intelligence tool
Developed in collaboration with the Federal University of Maranhão (UFMA) and integrated into ANTAQ's 2025-2026 Environmental and Waterway Safety Agenda, the study goes beyond simple threat mapping. It establishes itself as a regulatory intelligence tool designed to support investment decisions, guide public policies, and improve risk management strategies. As highlighted by Director-Rapporteur Alber Vasconcelos, anticipation is crucial to strengthening planning and increasing the sector's resilience in an increasingly complex environment.
The methodology employed adapted the World Economic Forum's renowned model for global risk reports, combining a literature review, an analysis of sustainability reports from Brazilian ports, and the valuable contributions of 125 sector experts and managers. The result is a Full Report and an Executive Summary, which serve as a benchmark for developing regulatory actions and strategies to strengthen the national port system.
Critical short-term risks
The study identified six risks considered critical in the short term, with high perception among the experts consulted. These challenges, which already concern the sector, demand immediate attention and effective mitigation strategies:
• Political instability: Scenarios of political uncertainty can affect predictability and the business environment.
• Geoeconomic conflicts: Trade disputes and tensions between nations can reconfigure cargo routes and flows.
• Regulatory overreach: The complexity and volume of regulations can create operational bottlenecks and additional costs.
• Increased tax burden: Fiscal impacts can compromise the competitiveness and investment capacity of ports.
• Disruptions in critical digital infrastructure: Cyber vulnerabilities and technological failures pose threats to the continuity of operations.
• Global supply chain failures: Disruptive events can generate bottlenecks and delays, affecting logistical efficiency.
Notably, 73.7% of the assessed risks remain high in both the short and long term, highlighting the structural nature of most challenges and the need for permanent, adaptive responses.
Long-term trends: Climate and digitalization
Looking ahead to 2035, two major trends emerge as the primary drivers of risk and transformation:
1. Environmental dimension: Climate change
Climate change is pointed out as the prevailing environmental risk. Extreme events, rising sea levels, coastal erosion, and the scarcity of natural resources are factors that will directly impact port infrastructure and operations. Furthermore, the challenges of decarbonizing maritime transport will require significant investments and the adoption of new technologies and sustainable practices.
2. Technological dimension: Digital transformation
The growing digitalization of ports, driven by automation and artificial intelligence, brings the need for robust investments in cybersecurity and critical infrastructure protection. The integration between digital and operational systems, along with the qualification of professionals to handle these new technologies, will be fundamental to ensuring the efficiency and safety of port operations.
In the economic sphere, political instability, regulatory overreach, and the tax burden remain challenges, while in the geopolitical arena, trade conflicts and changes in global routes could redefine worldwide logistical flows.
Toward a more resilient port sector
The "global port risks" project is not limited to a diagnosis; it offers a set of strategic recommendations to strengthen the resilience of the Brazilian port system. Among the main ones are:
• Implementation of integrated strategies for climate adaptation and digital modernization.
• Creation of a continuous risk monitoring system.
• Strengthening partnerships with universities and research centers to drive innovation.
• Encouraging the development of innovative solutions and incorporating risk management into the strategic planning processes of port authorities.
• Financing mechanisms for investments in resilient infrastructure and human resources training.
These recommendations underscore the importance of coordinated action between the public sector, port authorities, operators, shipowners, and other agents in the logistics chain. The study's results will serve as a technical foundation for ANTAQ in formulating regulatory policies and as a reference for the Ministry of Ports and Airports, aiming for evidence-based regulatory action and the continuous modernization of the sector.
Conclusion
Brazilian ports are at a crossroads of challenges and opportunities. The "Global Port Risks" study by ANTAQ and UFMA is a fundamental step toward illuminating the path, transforming diagnostics into planning and knowledge into strategic decisions. By embracing anticipation, innovation, and collaboration, Brazil can ensure that its ports not only weather global turbulence but also thrive as pillars of an increasingly complex and interconnected international trade network.
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