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For over a hundred years, coffee has been a cornerstone of the Brazilian economy, boosting the trade balance and establishing the country as a key player in the global market. In 2024, the bean reaffirmed its importance, ranking 7th among Brazil's main exported products.

However, coffee prices — both domestically and internationally — registered historic increases, affecting consumers worldwide.

The Surge in Coffee Prices

According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the global price of coffee jumped 38.8% in 2024 compared to the 2023 average. On exchanges like the Intercontinental Exchange Inc (ICE), the scenario was even more significant: Arabica coffee saw a 70% increase in the same period — and over 20% in the first quarter of 2024 alone.

In the domestic market, the impact was also felt. The Broad National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) indicated an accumulated inflation of 66.18% for coffee in the 12 months ending in February 2025.

The FAO warns that if unfavorable weather conditions persist in the main producing regions, prices may continue to rise throughout 2025.

Brazil: Global Leader in Coffee Production and Export

Brazil remains the absolute leader in global coffee production, accounting for 38% of the global supply and 20% of exports.

Vietnam holds the second position, with 17% of world production. Together, Brazil and Vietnam are responsible for more than half of the coffee produced on the planet — a feat made possible by the ideal climate, soil, and altitude conditions that few countries can replicate.

Coffee Exports in 2025

The data above corresponds to the period from January to December 2025, according to ComexVis.

What Caused the Rise in Coffee Prices?

• Adverse Weather Conditions: The harvests in Brazil and Vietnam were severely affected. In Brazil, the severe drought of 2024 reduced productivity. Vietnam faced irregular rainfall and dry weather, resulting in a 6% drop in production and a 47% decrease in exports.

• Increased Global Demand: Coffee is the second most consumed beverage in the world. Demand continues to grow, especially in emerging markets like China, where consumption has risen by 40% in the last five years. Meanwhile, global coffee production has remained stagnant since 2020.
Enquanto isso, a produção global do grão se mantém estagnada desde 2020.

• Reduction in Stocks: High consumption has been depleting global stocks, which fell from 37.5 million to just 20.8 million bags between 2020 and 2024.

• High Logistics Costs: Conflicts in the Middle East have put pressure on maritime transport costs, directly impacting the coffee trade, which relies heavily on this mode of transport.

• Exchange Rate Variations: The appreciation of the dollar in 2024 (a 27.3% increase) further increased the price of Brazilian coffee in the domestic market, as coffee is a commodity largely geared towards export.

Logistics: Key to the Competitiveness of Brazilian Coffee

Logistical efficiency is crucial for the success of coffee exports. Maritime transport is the main means of transporting the bean, and any logistical bottleneck can lead to delays, increased costs, and a loss of competitiveness in the international market.

With prices already high, investments in logistics planning become even more essential to preserve Brazil's leadership and ensure the sustainability of the sector.

Expectations for 2026

According to Cecafé data, there may be a drop in coffee demand in 2026, which could lead to a considerable increase in prices. However, expectations for a positive 2025 harvest are high, and for this to happen, the weather will also need to cooperate.

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