English 
Português do Brasil The global trade landscape in 2026 is being reshaped by a combination of American protectionism and strategic openings in other blocs. Recent data from the Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade, and Services (Mdic) reveals a tectonic shift in Brazil's trade partnerships: while exports to the United States struggle under the weight of tariffs, China and the European Union are solidifying their positions as the engines of the Brazilian surplus.
In this article, we analyze the factors that led to this reorganization, the impact of Donald Trump’s policies, and the expectations generated by the historic approval of the Mercosur-European Union agreement by the Federal Senate.
The U.S. Retreat and the Weight of the "Tariff Hike"
Trade relations with the United States have entered a phase of significant contraction. In February 2026, Brazilian exports to the North American market fell by 20.3%, totaling US$ 2.5 billion. This movement reflects an aggressive tariff policy that began in 2025, when Washington imposed rates reaching 50% in August of that year.
Despite a recent U.S. Supreme Court decision on February 20, 2026, which struck down part of these tariffs—maintaining only a general 10% rate—the damage to contract predictability was already visible. According to investment specialist Maressa Campos, the reduction to 10% "reduces friction but does not eliminate all barriers," and the Brazilian market has already begun seeking more dynamic alternatives.
| Indicator (Feb/2026 vs. Feb/2025) | United States |
| Export Variation | -20,3% |
| Bilateral Trade Balance | Deficit of US$ 265 million |
| Main Factor for Decline | Import tariffs and trade barriers |
China: The Safe Haven for Commodities
While the U.S. market cools, China reinforces its position as the indispensable destination for Brazilian wealth. In February 2026, sales to the Asian giant jumped 38.7%, reaching US$ 7.22 billion., alcançando US$ 7,22 bilhões.
This growth is not merely cyclical; it reflects structural Chinese demand for the four pillars of the Brazilian economy:
• Soybeans;
• Iron Ore;
• Oil;
• Animal Protein.
The 35.3% increase in shipping volume shows that China is not just paying more, but buying record quantities, filling the space left by the retraction in other markets.
A Historic Milestone: Mercosur and the European Union
One of the points of greatest optimism for the future of Brazilian foreign trade is the approval of the free trade agreement between Mercosur and the European Union. On March 4, 2026, the Federal Senate unanimously approved the text of the agreement (PDL 41/2026), marking the end of the legislative process in Brazil.
The impact of this approval is already being felt even before final ratification by the European Parliament. In February, exports to the EU grew 34.7%, totaling US$ 4.2 billion. This growth was driven by both an increase in volume (+16.7%) and an appreciation in average prices (+14.9%).
Diversification: Japan and ASEAN on the Radar
Beyond the major blocs, the Mdic report highlights growth in alternative markets, which is vital for the resilience of the trade balance:
• Japan: Up 31.6% (US$ 487.3 million).
• ASEAN (Southeast Asia): 15.3% growth (US$ 1.9 billion).
Conversely, intra-zone trade within Mercosur recorded a 19.5% drop, driven primarily by the economic crisis in Argentina, whose purchases from Brazil fell by 26.5%.
Conclusion
The 2026 scenario shows a Brazil that has learned to diversify. Historical dependence on the U.S. market is being replaced by deeper integration into Asia and a revitalization of relations with Europe.
The record surplus of US$ 4.2 billion recorded in February 2026 proves that, despite protectionist challenges, the competitiveness of Brazilian agribusiness and the extractive industry remains the country’s greatest asset on the global stage.
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