Brazilian Market

Inflation and Interest Rate: The inflation projection for 2025 has risen for the 19th consecutive week, reaching 5.65%, while for 2026 it increased from 4.35% to 4.40%. The official target for 2025 is 3%, with an acceptable variation between 1.5% and 4.5%. The Selic rate is expected to remain at 15% per year in 2025 and decrease to 12.5% in 2026.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP): The GDP growth estimate for 2025 remains at 2.01%, the same forecast for 2026, set at 1.70%. However, the Ministry of Finance revised its expectation for 2025, reducing it from 2.5% to 2.3%, driven by the agricultural sector.

Exchange Rate: The expectation for the dollar exchange rate at the end of 2025 fell from R$ 6.00 to R$ 5.99, while for 2026 the projection remains at R$ 6.00.

Social Programs: Caixa Econômica Federal began paying the February installment of Bolsa Família to beneficiaries with NIS ending in 6. The minimum amount is R$ 600, with an average of R$ 673.62 due to additional benefits for families with children, pregnant women, and adolescents. In addition, the Gas Aid, of R$ 106, is also being paid.

Social Security: The INSS began payments of February benefits, which will continue until March 12 for those receiving up to one minimum wage. Transfers will be paused between March 3 and 5 due to Carnival, resuming after the date.

Europe

Financial Markets: European stock exchanges are operating in an uptrend, driven by the results of the elections in Germany. The conservative coalition CDU/CSU won with 28.5% of the votes, making Friedrich Merz the likely new chancellor. The far-right party AfD came in second with 20.8%, while the SPD obtained 16.4%. Around 6:35 am (Brasília time), the Stoxx 600 index was up 0.20%, the Frankfurt Stock Exchange rose 0.88%, London gained 0.31%, and Paris recorded a slight drop of 0.14%.

Business Confidence in Germany: The Ifo business climate index remained at 85.2 points in February, contrary to growth expectations. The scenario reflects the business sector's wait for the formation of the new government, with a grand coalition being the most likely outcome.

Inflation in the Eurozone: Annual inflation in the eurozone increased for the fourth consecutive month, reaching 2.5% in January, above the European Central Bank's (ECB) 2% target. This scenario may influence future monetary decisions of the institution.

Economic Prospects: HSBC forecasts a 0.9% growth for the European economy in 2025, driven by consumption, fiscal stimulus, and exports. If a peace agreement in Ukraine is signed, Europe may benefit from the drop in gas prices and opportunities in the country's reconstruction.

China

Financial Market: China's main stock indices have recorded recent drops due to uncertainties about new US investment policies, which may increase trade tensions. The CSI300 fell 0.22%, while the SSEC, from Shanghai, fell 0.18%.

Technology Investments: Alibaba announced a US$ 53 billion (approximately R$ 303 billion) investment in artificial intelligence and cloud computing over the next three years, reaffirming its commitment to innovation.

Agricultural Sector: China's Ministry of Agriculture has set a goal to increase grain production by 50 million tons by 2030, representing a 7% growth compared to 2024. The objective is to meet the growing demand for food, driven by the increase in consumption of meat, eggs, and milk in the country.

United States

Financial Market: US stock exchanges closed last Friday with a significant drop due to fears of economic slowdown. The Dow Jones fell 1.69%, the Nasdaq lost 2.20%, and the S&P 500 retreated 1.70%.

Inflation and Monetary Policy: Inflation expectations for the US rose to 5.65% in 2025 and 4.40% in 2026. Meanwhile, projections for the Selic rate were maintained at 15% for 2025 and 12.5% for 2026.

Exchange Rate: The median dollar exchange rate at the end of 2025 fell from R$ 6.00 to R$ 5.99, marking the first time the value has been below this mark since January 13.

Economic Activity: The US labor market remains heated, boosting income and consumption, which may sustain economic growth in the short term.

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